Updated 2:54 AM | Feb. 2, 2016How Iowa VotedBy FiveThirtyEightFiled under 2016 Election Harry Enten 9:54 pm Yeah, Dave, our polls-plus model had Trump at only a 46 percent chance to win. So far: Big win for the fundamentals, and a big win for not taking caucus polls at face value. × The best of FiveThirtyEight, delivered to you. Thanks for subscribing!You should receive a confirmation in your inbox shortly. Error: {{data}}. Email Address Morning Distribution (Daily) Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight. Top Stories Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top stories last week. Politics Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories last week. Popular Stories Tim Scott’s Uphill Battle To Win The Republican Nomination Florida Started A Race To Reshape Conservatism. Now It Has Some Catching Up To Do. Some Evangelical Voters Aren't Sold On Trump. Will That Help DeSantis?