Updated 2:54 AM | Feb. 2, 2016How Iowa VotedBy FiveThirtyEightFiled under 2016 Election David Wasserman 9:49 pm Tonight’s biggest loser so far? Conventional Wisdom. Supposedly, bigger turnout was going to be great for Trump. Right now, it looks terrific for Ted Cruz, who is on the verge of pulling off what would have to be considered an upset victory. × The best of FiveThirtyEight, delivered to you. Thanks for subscribing!You should receive a confirmation in your inbox shortly. Error: {{data}}. Email Address Morning Distribution (Daily) Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight. Top Stories Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top stories last week. Politics Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories last week. Popular Stories Tim Scott’s Uphill Battle To Win The Republican Nomination Florida Started A Race To Reshape Conservatism. Now It Has Some Catching Up To Do. Some Evangelical Voters Aren't Sold On Trump. Will That Help DeSantis?