FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Note to self, invariably to be forgotten four years from now when Tom Cotton is locked into a fierce battle in the Iowa caucuses with Sarah Palin and Charles Barkley: Be careful with those entrance polls. Initial entrance poll data showed leads for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton; Clinton is still leading among Democrats but not by much, while Trump trails Ted Cruz among Republicans by 3 percentage points. The entrance polls also inaccurately had Rick Santorum in third place in Iowa four years ago.

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