Everyone but Ted Cruz supporters thinks Donald Trump is the favorite to win the Iowa Republican caucuses tonight. Everyone but supporters of Trump, Marco Rubio and Bernie Sanders thinks Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses. Morning Consult, a Washington, D.C., technology and media company that conducts weekly online polls, asked 1,871 registered voters who they think will win the caucuses, in a national poll conducted Friday through Sunday. Morning Consult provided the results first to FiveThirtyEight. We’ve
posted the crosstabs, showing how respondents’ predictions varied by gender, age, income, race and many other factors. But we were especially interested in how people’s predictions vary by whom they’re supporting. Do supporters of Rubio or Sanders think their candidate will pull off the upset?
Who do Republicans think will win the Iowa Republican caucuses?
|
PERCENTAGE WHO SAY THIS CANDIDATE WILL WIN |
| GROUP |
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
BUSH |
OTHERS |
UNSURE |
| All registered voters |
48% |
13% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
20% |
| Trump supporters |
81 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| Cruz supporters |
26 |
58 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
12 |
| Rubio supporters |
52 |
18 |
20 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
| Carson supporters |
49 |
5 |
4 |
28 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
| Supporters of other GOP candidates |
37 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
14 |
16 |
10 |
| Undecided Republicans |
41 |
0 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
41 |
Nearly four times as many registered voters think Trump will win tonight as the number who named Cruz. No other candidate was named by more than 5 percent of respondents. Trump’s platform is all about winning, and 81 percent of his supporters think he’ll be on brand tonight. Supporters of everyone else think Trump is the heavy favorite.
Who do Democrats think will win the Iowa Republican caucuses?
|
PERCENTAGE WHO SAY THIS CANDIDATE WILL WIN |
| GROUP |
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
BUSH |
OTHERS |
UNSURE |
| All registered voters |
48% |
13% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
20% |
| Clinton supporters |
41 |
13 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
23 |
| Sanders supporters |
48 |
15 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
17 |
| Supporters of other Democratic candidates |
49 |
18 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
2 |
15 |
| Undecided Democrats |
41 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
49 |
Democrats agree that Trump is the favorite.
Who do Democrats think will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses?
|
PERCENTAGE WHO SAY THIS CANDIDATE WILL WIN |
| GROUP |
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
O’MALLEY |
OTHER DEM. |
UNSURE |
| All registered voters |
47% |
30% |
3% |
3% |
17% |
| Clinton supporters |
85 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
6 |
| Sanders supporters |
25 |
64 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
| Supporters of other Democratic candidates |
29 |
45 |
6 |
4 |
16 |
| Undecided Democrats |
37 |
18 |
1 |
3 |
42 |
Hillary Clinton supporters are even more sure of their candidate’s victory tonight than Trump’s supporters are. Sanders supporters are almost as confident.
Who do Republicans think will win the Iowa Democratic caucuses?
|
PERCENTAGE WHO SAY THIS CANDIDATE WILL WIN |
| GROUP |
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
O’MALLEY |
OTHER DEM. |
UNSURE |
| All registered voters |
47% |
30% |
3% |
3% |
17% |
| Trump supporters |
30 |
41 |
4 |
5 |
20 |
| Cruz supporters |
39 |
34 |
1 |
4 |
22 |
| Rubio supporters |
35 |
38 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
| Carson supporters |
50 |
29 |
0 |
4 |
17 |
| Supporters of other GOP candidates |
43 |
34 |
4 |
7 |
12 |
| Undecided Republicans |
47 |
30 |
2 |
1 |
19 |
Many commentators have noted the surprising overlap in appeal of Trump and Sanders. (Though
their candidacies are very different.) Trump supporters are noticeably bullish on Sanders’s chances. More Rubio supporters also forecast a Sanders victory tonight than a Clinton win, though the sample is so small that the difference isn’t meaningful.
