Is this the right time for a deep methodological discussion about the perils of generalizing from small sample sizes? Or is this the time to generalize from small sample sizes?
I am not really surprised that Biden in particular did so poorly at my particular precinct — Iowa City is very liberal, and the big battle tonight was always going to be between Warren and Sanders. But it is a little shocking to see him only get 13 votes at an event with 800+ attendees. He needed approximately 10x that many supporters to be viable.
It’s unusual for sure, Sarah — this has to be the latest we’ve gone with no or nearly no results. In 2008, both party winners had been called by 9:30 p.m. eastern, and Cruz was declared the winner by 10:30 p.m. last time around in the GOP caucuses.
As we await more results, I’m thinking some more about how the caucuses have changed over time. A few people have mentioned 2004, when John Kerry won and Howard Dean came in third (effectively ending Dean’s candidacy). But an important dynamic driving Kerry’s win was that he had picked up support in the polls as well as endorsements from elected officials and newspapers. In other words, his win in Iowa wasn’t an aberration — it was a key indicator of which candidate was the most viable, and most actors worked in concert after that. His main competitor, Dean, dropped out a few weeks later.
It’s vanishingly unlikely that we’ll see anything like that tonight. As the authors of “The Party Decides” have recently written, party elites have lost much of their influence and the length and competitiveness of the early season means they no longer endorse as readily. Furthermore, tonight’s results — which look unlikely to produce a runaway winner — are therefore less likely to help elites, voters and newspaper editorial teams coordinate on their support for a single candidate.
Not to be a pedant, but these Iowa caucusgoers are not the first in the nation to weigh in on the Democratic primary contest. Voting by mail began in California this morning, where 10 TIMES as many delegates are at stake. California will assign 415 pledged delegates to the national convention.
At this point, the Warren and Sanders supporters can leave, since their candidates can’t become un-viable. This caucus has now been going for more than two hours, and some people are heading for the exits.
Well, the results from the first alignment are in, and the only two viable candidates at my precinct are Warren and Sanders. Candidates needed 120 supporters to be viable, and here’s what the remaining candidates got: Buttigieg (72), Yang (45), Klobuchar (23), Biden (13), Steyer (10), uncommitted (5), Gabbard (4). People are sadly chanting “We love Pete” at the back of the room.
Sarah, if there is a large enough group of uncommitted voters that is viable, it’s technically a candidate preference group. Every year, there are a few uncommitted votes — “uncommitted” actually won the 1972 and 1976 caucuses, though that was a very different time. In 2020, it appears that voters were encouraged to make a choice so as to avoid ending up in a viable uncommitted group, but theoretically it could happen in a few precincts.
Also something that stuck out to me earlier. Why in the world are people locked into being uncommitted if “uncommitted” is “viable”??? Can they change that later in the evening, or no?
I would be on Bennet to drop out, because I’m new here and I want to play it safe. I aspire to Julia’s level of hot takes.
Klobuchar is a traditional candidate, meaning she wants to keep the peace with the party and likely won’t keep going if she doesn’t have a viable path. Iowa is her one shot at the nomination, and it doesn’t seem to be panning out for her tonight.
I’m just being argumentative.
Julia, that’s 🔥
Buttigieg.
Sarah, I think Klobuchar is the only one in danger of dropping out after tonight — if she finishes fifth in Iowa, I’m not sure what the path forward for her is. However, I think Bennet and maybe Patrick will drop out after New Hampshire.
Klobuchar
Mini #dropoutdraft while we wait for results … who drops out next?
Uncommitted just hit the viability threshold in a precinct CNN is showing, which seems like a good metaphor for the sort of night we’re having.
Tim Alberta at Politico with a 🔥 take.
Picking up on Matt’s point, one thing I’m struck by is the following things: Democratic voters say the ability to beat President Trump is key, they think Biden is the most electable, and yet Biden’s nationwide polling lead among Democrats is smaller than you might expect.
Interestingly, the 1976 Carter Iowa Caucus victory that made Iowa the national leader in media coverage and campaign influence was actually won by “uncommitted” by 37 percent (to 27 percent for Carter).
Sarah, in terms of what we’ve learned so far, I think we’ve learned that Buttigieg’s chances were maybe undersold: He didn’t make much news the last few weeks, but he also didn’t have a clear mistake to lead him to drop in the polls. His organization is very strong, with five more field offices than his nearest competitor (Biden).
Matt raises an excellent point. I think there’s a concern among Democrats that the primary process will tend toward a nominee who won’t be competitive with the broader electorate. But that ignores the fact that to win the nomination, a candidate has to already build a big coalition within the party. In theory, they would build on that in the general.
Decently big gap between the AP’s first alignment results, which show Sanders leading Warren 25-21, and the final alignment results, which have Buttigieg leading Sanders 28-23. However, this doesn’t look like the same of results in each precinct — there are quite a few more votes in the first alignment data.
Caucusgoers say they are primarily considering electability. But it is general-election electability (expected performance against Trump) rather than a consideration of who can win the nomination based on their current national support. Supporters of Klobuchar and Buttigieg do not seem concerned about their candidates’ ability to perform elsewhere, even if they do not expect to come in first in Iowa.
In response to Sarah’s question, my preliminary takeaways are similar to Nate’s — high interest, unlikely to have a clear result.
Sarah, I’ve been surprised that Biden is reportedly not viable in some places. I don’t know how widespread that is, but I didn’t really expect it much of anywhere. And if Pete does well, I will be surprised, as I kind of expected him to underperform with Klobuchar rising and “electability” voters moving to Biden.
Only 8 percent of caucusgoers are not white, so this should be taken with a huge grain of salt. But while Biden has been doing well among nonwhite — and especially black — voters in pre-election polling, Sanders seems to be the candidate doing best among nonwhite voters in Iowa, according to the preliminary entrance polls.
Nate Silver gives us his impressions of the Iowa caucuses based on early data:
https://youtu.be/5e3rBNZlPdkSo far, Sarah, I think that we’ve learned that Buttigieg is likely to perform at the higher end of his range and that there probably isn’t going to be a blowout winner tonight. Beyond that, everything is pretty speculative.
Sarah, I think we’ve learned that turnout appears to be pretty high and might outpace the 240,000 or so that showed up in the 2008 Democratic caucuses, the current record for raw turnout in Iowa.
Hey all, question for people who might just be tuning in: We’ve been here awhile now and yet don’t have many results, but have we learned anything of consequence? What are the most important one or two things we’ve learned so far in your view?
Caucusgoers are being mildly scolded by the precinct chair for having written on the back of their presidential preference card too early in the process. They’re being told to exchange their “spoiled” card for an “unspoiled” card. There are plenty of reasons why the caucus results might be delayed, but one is just that there are many, many points in this process that involve people closely following complicated instructions. It’s clear that the precinct chair really wants to get this right. And that can take some time.
As early narratives begin to form tonight, keep in mind that it’s exactly those narratives — and not the delegates — that count. Only 41 pledged delegates are up for grabs tonight out of nearly 4,000 in the Democratic primary overall. New Hampshire has even fewer: 24 pledged delegates.
Ah yes, Rubio. Swept to victory after winning the huge Minnesota caucuses and Puerto Rico primary.
While we’re waiting, I guess there’s time to reflect on the strategic genius of President Rubio’s 3-2-1 strategy, in which a third-place finish in Iowa set him up for his unlikely victories later in the primary season?
Multiple results with close finishes could make a it less likely that the media coalesces around one dominant narrative out of Iowa. That could reduce poll bounces and fundraising gains for the winners. The media also might focus more on a perceived loser, especially if Biden is not in the top two.
Right, Perry, especially if it’s, say, Biden in fourth. I’m dying for some real results over here as I keep seeing all these reports of “not viable” at various precincts. Really hard to know how much he’s underperforming at this point, though. Or how much Buttigieg is overperforming.
The story tonight is about the winner, of course, but the person who finishes in fourth, even if he or she is barely behind the other three, is going to face some tough questions tomorrow about what went wrong in Iowa.
Perry, Gabbard is also focusing on New Hampshire. She hasn’t run ads in Iowa for weeks, and her last visit to the state was October 24.
A note of caution on these early results: We don’t know which precincts they’re coming from, so they may not be wildly representative. I like to wait until at least 10 percent of precincts are reporting to really trust the numbers.
Often, candidates drop out after poor showings in Iowa. But the most logical person to do that already dropped out (Delaney.) Along with the big five we are focused on tonight (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren), there are still six other candidates left. Gabbard and Yang are competing in Iowa, but they are running unorthodox campaigns, so I don’t see them dropping out after Iowa. Of the other four candidates, Bennet and Patrick are really focused on New Hampshire, Steyer on Nevada/South Carolina, Bloomberg on the Super Tuesday states. Would not expect them to drop out until after those states vote.
Now Buttigieg moving ahead in that final alignment data, 27-23 over Sanders. Look, it’s early, but Sanders and Pete are the two candidates who have the most to be happy about so far.
One of the wonkish questions I had going into tonight was whether we would get each precinct’s three sets of results at the same time. Nope! Right now, according to the Des Moines Register (which gets its data from the Associated Press), 27 precincts are reporting the first alignment numbers, 23 precincts are reporting the final alignment numbers and zero precincts are so far reporting the state delegate equivalent numbers.
If you think this waiting is bad, let’s see what you think of Saturday, when the Republic of Ireland votes. Given its ranked-choice voting system, counting there can sometimes take days.
With a few minutes left in the first alignment, lots of cheering from the Buttigieg camp, which seems to have picked up a few new supporters. A handful of Gabbard supporters are still holding firm near me, although I think one may have peeled away. The next question is how many of the candidates have reached the 120 supporters they need to pass the viability threshold.
On the other hand, caucusing can’t be a pleasant experience if you don’t like schmoozing and crowds. Hard to imagine an experience that’s further from the private voting booth we’re all used to than this loud, brightly lit room full of people just itching to convince you that they know which candidate you should support.
Building on Laura’s post about Sanders’s voters and issues. In 2016 surveys, I’ve found that Sanders voters were way more likely than Clinton’s to cite issues when asked why they backed him.