FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

Buttigieg v. Bloomberg is interesting to me, as both are vying to be the non-Biden center-left candidate. Buttigieg likely did well in Iowa last night. He is decently positioned in New Hampshire. He may get a bounce in polls. That said, at least right now, Bloomberg has caught up to him in national polls, perhaps in part because of all the political ads he’s running. Bloomberg is also spending lots of time in Super Tuesday states, while Buttigieg is in the traditional early states. And over the last few weeks, Democratic elected officials have been endorsing Bloomberg, not Buttigieg. I have a cynical take on that — I think neither Bloomberg nor Buttigieg is likely to be president in 2021, but one of them will be a billionaire able to fund projects in your city and hire you for a big nonprofit job. There’s a case that you would rather be Bloomberg than Buttigieg right now, particularly if the early primaries are inconclusive. (And at least at 11:50 a.m. on Feb 4. the primary results are inconclusive!)


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