Sarah, Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status is an accident of history. It starting going first in 1972, before the order of the states really mattered. The power of going first became clear in 1976, once Jimmy Carter proved that a candidate could gain momentum and eventually win a nomination by performing well in Iowa. Since then, leaders of both parties in Iowa have fought to maintain the state’s status.
There are various ways this could change going forward, but it could require coordination and agreement between the national party, state parties and state legislatures. One obvious change might be for Iowa to just hold a primary instead of a caucus. But that would create tension with New Hampshire, which has written into state law that it should be the first state in the country to hold a primary.
The national party could try to change the order of states altogether, but the date of a primary or caucus is ultimately up to the state legislature or state party (depending on which entity runs it in a given state). The national party can create incentives or disincentives to try to get the states to change their dates, but that’s not guaranteed to work.
We have yet to find out the true scale of the current shitshow, but there’s a possibility that — especially if Democrats lose in the fall — Iowa could be shamed into changing its ways and working with the national party to do so. As with the results themselves, a lot is yet to be determined.