FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

The most drastic change that would likely come to Iowa if people perceive tonight as a massive #fail would be switching to a traditional primary. However, this would likely require Iowa to vote later in the calendar, as New Hampshire by law must have the nation’s first actual primary. However, that might be just fine with a lot of Iowans. In a September Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, 44 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers thought it would be better to hold a primary “so everyone can vote, even if it means Iowa would no longer” vote first. On the other hand, 42 percent thought Iowa should go first “even if it means not everyone who wants to can participate on caucus night.”


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