FiveThirtyEight
Laura Bronner

As Geoffrey pointed out earlier, the age breakdown is slightly different than in previous caucuses — the under-45 group is a bit larger, while the 45-64 group is a bit smaller. Since Sanders leads among younger voters, that might benefit him; among the 45-to-64-year-olds, on the other hand, Buttigieg and Biden are doing well.

Younger voters are turning out

Age breakdown of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers in 2020 and recent presidential election cycles, according to preliminary entrance poll data

Age 2004 2008 2016 2020
17-29 17% 22% 18% 24%
30-44 15 18 19 21
45-64 41 38 36 28
65+ 27 22 28 27

The sample size was 1,1512 in 2020, 1,660 in 2016, 2,178 in 2008 and 1,665 in 2004.

Source: ABC News/Edison Research


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