What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses
The gap between Buttigieg’s strong support among Iowa’s overwhelmingly white electorate and his lack of support among nonwhite voters nationally is now even more clear. He has now officially done very well in Iowa, despite months of harsh coverage of his lack of appeal to minority voters., which I thought might affect his standing in Iowa. Now, the question will be can he make gains across all demographics nationally and in states like Nevada and South Carolina? Or do Biden — and to some extent, Bloomberg and Steyer, if we’re looking at the more moderate candidates — remain more popular than him among nonwhite voters?
Now that we have precinct-level data, we can see which candidates met the threshold necessary at each caucus site. Of the 1,099 precincts reporting, Buttigieg met the 15 percent threshold in 88 percent and Sanders in 77 percent.
How often did candidates miss viability thresholds?
Average votes shy of viability threshold in precincts where candidates were not viable and number of precincts under viability threshold for each candidate in the Iowa caucuses. Preliminary results with 62 percent of precincts reporting.
| Candidate | Average votes short | Precincts under threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | -3.9 | 129 |
| Sanders | -2.3 | 255 |
| Biden | -8.8 | 342 |
| Warren | -2.4 | 394 |
| Klobuchar | -7.4 | 514 |
| Uncommitted | -13.6 | 901 |
| Yang | -10.1 | 982 |
| Steyer | -13.4 | 1054 |
| Other | -14.3 | 1076 |
| Gabbard | -14.3 | 1090 |
| Bloomberg | -14.5 | 1095 |
| Bennet | -14.5 | 1098 |
| Delaney | -14.6 | 1099 |
| Patrick | -14.6 | 1099 |
The immediate reaction is not as positive for Sanders or Warren as I expected, mostly due to the focus on state delegate equivalents. Buttigieg’s decision to set expectations high (essentially claiming a win) may not hurt him if he pulls out the victory in that metric. Warren’s decision to claim a close three-way race may hurt her. Her third-place finish (currently only two points behind Buttigieg in initial preferences) is not yet being seen as a big victory, even though Warren beating Biden should be another major story.