What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses
Now that we have precinct-level data, we can see which candidates met the threshold necessary at each caucus site. Of the 1,099 precincts reporting, Buttigieg met the 15 percent threshold in 88 percent and Sanders in 77 percent.
How often did candidates miss viability thresholds?
Average votes shy of viability threshold in precincts where candidates were not viable and number of precincts under viability threshold for each candidate in the Iowa caucuses. Preliminary results with 62 percent of precincts reporting.
| Candidate | Average votes short | Precincts under threshold |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | -3.9 | 129 |
| Sanders | -2.3 | 255 |
| Biden | -8.8 | 342 |
| Warren | -2.4 | 394 |
| Klobuchar | -7.4 | 514 |
| Uncommitted | -13.6 | 901 |
| Yang | -10.1 | 982 |
| Steyer | -13.4 | 1054 |
| Other | -14.3 | 1076 |
| Gabbard | -14.3 | 1090 |
| Bloomberg | -14.5 | 1095 |
| Bennet | -14.5 | 1098 |
| Delaney | -14.6 | 1099 |
| Patrick | -14.6 | 1099 |
The immediate reaction is not as positive for Sanders or Warren as I expected, mostly due to the focus on state delegate equivalents. Buttigieg’s decision to set expectations high (essentially claiming a win) may not hurt him if he pulls out the victory in that metric. Warren’s decision to claim a close three-way race may hurt her. Her third-place finish (currently only two points behind Buttigieg in initial preferences) is not yet being seen as a big victory, even though Warren beating Biden should be another major story.
How bad is it for Biden, Micah? I mean, it’s pretty bad, in part because Buttigieg finished ahead of him, giving him more competition in the moderate lane. I guess the silver lining is that expectations were so low as of last night that getting 15 percent might seem tolerable by comparison. But we’ll see. I don’t think Biden can afford another fourth-place finish in New Hampshire.