What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

The immediate reaction is not as positive for Sanders or Warren as I expected, mostly due to the focus on state delegate equivalents. Buttigieg’s decision to set expectations high (essentially claiming a win) may not hurt him if he pulls out the victory in that metric. Warren’s decision to claim a close three-way race may hurt her. Her third-place finish (currently only two points behind Buttigieg in initial preferences) is not yet being seen as a big victory, even though Warren beating Biden should be another major story.

How bad is it for Biden, Micah? I mean, it’s pretty bad, in part because Buttigieg finished ahead of him, giving him more competition in the moderate lane. I guess the silver lining is that expectations were so low as of last night that getting 15 percent might seem tolerable by comparison. But we’ll see. I don’t think Biden can afford another fourth-place finish in New Hampshire.

If this sticks, and we don’t know that it will, how bad is it for Biden?