Updated |
What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses
The second-choice data suggests that Buttigieg and Warren gained the most in the realignment phase of the caucuses, which fits with how they have run — both have tried to appeal to all people in the party and offer themselves as consensus choices.
The polling in Iowa, which should be judged by first preferences, was actually quite good. Especially the spiked Selzer & Co. poll!
Here’s a consolidated look at the preliminary results with 62 percent of precincts reporting:
Preliminary results from the Iowa caucuses
First alignment, final alignment, and State Delegate Equivalents (S.D.E.) in the Iowa caucuses with 62% of precincts reporting as of 5:01 pm
| FIRST ALIGNMENT | FINAL ALIGNMENT | S.D.E. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 21% | 25% | 27% |
| Sanders | 24 | 26 | 25 |
| Warren | 19 | 21 | 18 |
| Biden | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| Klobuchar | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Yang | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Steyer | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gabbard | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennet | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bloomberg | 0 | 0 | 0 |