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What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses
Buttigieg Gained The Most From Realignment
Here is a table of the initial popular vote vs. the popular vote after non-viable candidates’ supporters realigned. As you can see, Sanders is leading in both counts, but Buttigieg gained the most from realignment. Biden — and really all of the candidates who got less than 15 percent in the initial popular vote — were hurt by the realignment.
How Iowa’s votes have changed from one stage to the next
As of 5:01 p.m., 62 percent of precincts reporting
| CANDIDATE | FIRST ALIGNMENT | FINAL ALIGNMENT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders | 24.5% | 26.3% | +1.8 |
| Buttigieg | 21.4 | 25.1 | +3.7 |
| Warren | 18.8 | 20.7 | +1.9 |
| Biden | 14.6 | 13.2 | -1.4 |
| Klobuchar | 12.7 | 12.4 | -0.3 |
| Yang | 5.2 | 1.0 | -4.2 |
| Steyer | 1.7 | 0.2 | -1.5 |
| Gabbard | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Bloomberg | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Patrick | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Bennet | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Delaney | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This is just my impression, but I feel like people take second-day coverage differently — and as more final — than night-of coverage, Galen.
Laura, why do you say that people appear to be taking Buttigieg’s lead for granted any more than they would have last night?