What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

So far, Biden is losing from the realignment process (likely due to missing the viability threshold in many caucuses) but gaining from the geographic distribution. Buttigieg is gaining from both. Sanders and Warren are gaining a bit from realignment but losing ground from their geographic concentration.

Note: These results are raw results, not projections which take the attributes of the reporting precincts into account. This means that they can still change as the remaining 38 percent of the vote comes in.

We have numbers! With 62 percent reporting, the first alignment vote is Sanders 24 percent, Buttigieg 21 percent, Warren 19 percent, Biden 15 percent and Klobuchar 13 percent. The post-alignment vote is Sanders 26 percent, Buttigieg 25 percent, Warren 21 percent, Biden 13 percent, Klobuchar 12 percent. The state delegate equivalent distribution is Buttigieg 27 percent, Sanders 25 percent, Warren 18 percent, Biden 16 percent, Klobuchar 13 percent. Again, this is with only about three-fifths of the vote reporting. In effect, we’ve dropped into where we would have been around 10 p.m. on a normal caucus night. We will update as more of the vote trickles in!