FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

If this holds up and four candidates win more than 15 percent of state delegate equivalents — which is the traditional measure in Iowa, so it’s useful for historical comparisons — this would be the first time that four candidates won at least 15 percent in the Iowa caucuses. Buttigieg 27 percent, Sanders 25 percent, Warren 18 percent, Biden 16 percent, Klobuchar 13 percent.

Nate Silver

This all just feels so weird. At the end of the day, though, it’s in line with reasonable expectations based on the hints we had last night.

Nate Silver

So Buttigieg leading in delegate equivalents, Sanders in first preference, Sanders also in final preference, but it’s very close.


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