What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

Nate Silver

Before we know anything about the results, keep in mind that a situation like this makes it hard for our model to predict what the post-Iowa bounce will be. We’ll turn it on at some point once results are final-ish. But we may really need to wait for post-Iowa polls for it to stabilize. It could easily overreact, underreact, or mis-react.

Laura Bronner

4:49 pm

This should go without saying, but these partial results should be treated like election night returns — there's no guarantee the 50% will be representative of the whole. Bring on the needles! https://t.co/fXME8LPmHj
— Laura Bronner (@laurabronner) February 4, 2020

Nathaniel Rakich

4:48 pm

We’re back for day two of the FiveThirtyEight Iowa caucuses live blog! We’re currently waiting for the Iowa Democratic Party to make an announcement, originally scheduled for 4:45 p.m. Eastern. Then we expect to get about 50 percent of results at 5 p.m. Eastern.

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