What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

For what it’s worth … I see a lot of folks saying that all states should vote at once in the primaries. I don’t have time for a longer take on this, but I actually think the sequential nature of the primaries isn’t a problem — in fact, it’s potentially a more robust process. Voters get to react to previous results, and candidates have to show some stamina and endurance. They can’t benefit just by happening to have the whole election conducted in the midst of a favorable news cycle. BUT I think you have to create some incentives so that there isn’t a huge benefit to going first. That probably means some combination of (i) giving a larger delegate bonus to states that vote later in the process — the DNC already does this, but it could use a more aggressive weighting scheme — and (ii) allowing later-voting states to be partially winner-take-all.

I’m seeing lots of people on Twitter attacking Biden’s team for seeming to raise broader questions about how seriously the Iowa results should be taken, considering all of the challenges in getting the vote count completed, and attacking Buttigieg for saying last night, “By all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.” I don’t see much problem with either comment. I don’t view either of them as really damaging the legitimacy of this process. If, say, Sanders is declared the winner, I don’t expect Buttigieg to go around claiming that he really won, not Sanders. Also, those statements have some truth to them. If Buttigieg finishes second/and or ahead of Biden — which is possible — that is a kind of victory, even if Buttigieg perhaps should have phrased his statement more carefully. And I have some questions about the Iowa results myself, so I understand Biden’s team raising questions, even if that has an element of self-interest. (It seems like Biden didn’t do well last night and he might want Iowa’s results downplayed a bit.)

Buttigieg v. Bloomberg is interesting to me, as both are vying to be the non-Biden center-left candidate. Buttigieg likely did well in Iowa last night. He is decently positioned in New Hampshire. He may get a bounce in polls. That said, at least right now, Bloomberg has caught up to him in national polls, perhaps in part because of all the political ads he’s running. Bloomberg is also spending lots of time in Super Tuesday states, while Buttigieg is in the traditional early states. And over the last few weeks, Democratic elected officials have been endorsing Bloomberg, not Buttigieg. I have a cynical take on that — I think neither Bloomberg nor Buttigieg is likely to be president in 2021, but one of them will be a billionaire able to fund projects in your city and hire you for a big nonprofit job. There’s a case that you would rather be Bloomberg than Buttigieg right now, particularly if the early primaries are inconclusive. (And at least at 11:50 a.m. on Feb 4. the primary results are inconclusive!)