What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

Since late last night/early this morning — what is time, really? — the Buttigieg and Sanders campaigns have both released internal data showing their candidates doing well. Buttigieg’s campaign claimed to have data from roughly 75 percent of precincts, while Sanders’s campaign had data from “trained Sanders volunteers at representative precincts” across Iowa. On the one hand, their strong showings do line up to some extent with entrance poll data that suggested they were neck-and-neck when it came to initial preferences among caucusgoers. On the other hand, it’s not official data, and the campaigns obviously have an interest in selling what makes them look best. So be careful with this info.

I would not have said that, Micah. They seem to be basing that on the entrance poll results, but polls have margins of error! You might as well have written up an Iowa results article based on the David Binder Research poll that came out on Monday.

Bad use of data, Micah. That Washington Post piece does go on to say, “It’s therefore important to emphasize the preliminary and anecdotal nature of what we know, but there’s a body of evidence that points to a bad night for Biden.” But I think it’s pretty irresponsible, especially as we’re seeing reports that data was only partially reported in the app. And remember, as of 11 a.m. ET we still only have data for less than 2 percent of precincts.