What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

I would not have said that, Micah. They seem to be basing that on the entrance poll results, but polls have margins of error! You might as well have written up an Iowa results article based on the David Binder Research poll that came out on Monday.

Bad use of data, Micah. That Washington Post piece does go on to say, “It’s therefore important to emphasize the preliminary and anecdotal nature of what we know, but there’s a body of evidence that points to a bad night for Biden.” But I think it’s pretty irresponsible, especially as we’re seeing reports that data was only partially reported in the app. And remember, as of 11 a.m. ET we still only have data for less than 2 percent of precincts.

Question for folks … here’s a pretty everything-is-normal Iowa analysis from The Washington Post that just published: “A bad night for Biden in Iowa is good news for Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg.” It’s written as though we got the Iowa results, but really just references the entrances polls. Here’s the lede, for example:

Joe Biden’s core message was electability, but the former vice president failed to consolidate support among the majority of Iowa caucus-goers who said choosing a candidate who can beat President Trump was their first priority, according to preliminary entrance polls conducted Monday night.

Is that fair to say given … yeah, we don’t have the results still?