What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

Bad use of data, Micah. That Washington Post piece does go on to say, “It’s therefore important to emphasize the preliminary and anecdotal nature of what we know, but there’s a body of evidence that points to a bad night for Biden.” But I think it’s pretty irresponsible, especially as we’re seeing reports that data was only partially reported in the app. And remember, as of 11 a.m. ET we still only have data for less than 2 percent of precincts.

Question for folks … here’s a pretty everything-is-normal Iowa analysis from The Washington Post that just published: “A bad night for Biden in Iowa is good news for Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg.” It’s written as though we got the Iowa results, but really just references the entrances polls. Here’s the lede, for example:

Joe Biden’s core message was electability, but the former vice president failed to consolidate support among the majority of Iowa caucus-goers who said choosing a candidate who can beat President Trump was their first priority, according to preliminary entrance polls conducted Monday night.

Is that fair to say given … yeah, we don’t have the results still?

To update readers on the decisions being made here at FiveThirtyEight HQ: We’re leaving our 2020 primary forecast model frozen until we get the results from Iowa, as those are a pretty big variable for predicting candidates’ chances in New Hampshire and beyond. That is, we’re not updating the forecast with any new data for the time being. If we get any new polls, however, you can still follow them (and how they affect our polling averages) on our polls page.