What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

Yep. I’d be very surprised if anyone gets an Iowa polling bump.

Yeah, Nathaniel, multiple campaigns releasing their own results is only adding more confusion to this situation. Seems destined to further muddy the waters even when we eventually get actual, official counts, as these numbers will still be floating around, cited, etc.

We are so deep in bizarro world that the campaigns themselves have started reporting “results” as collected by their precinct captains. Again, these should be taken with huge grains of salt, as they are coming from biased sources and are incomplete. (Indeed, precincts where a campaign didn’t have a precinct captain stationed are likely to be among a campaign’s worst precincts.) For instance, take the Sanders campaign’s “results,” which show Sanders leading but represent fewer than 40 percent of precincts. And the Buttigieg campaign claims to have collected data from more precincts (77 percent), but they were vague about the results — other than claiming that “we are on our way to winning the SDE count.”