FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

From our friends at CBS News:

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

It’s the first alignment at my precinct here in Iowa City, and campaign volunteers are prowling their room looking for persuadable folks in small groups. Supporters of candidates like Gabbard are not going to make it past 15 percent at this precinct, so they’re already being approached with pitches for why they should think about another candidate. The negotiating and persuading has begun!

Laura Bronner

According to preliminary entrance polls, 62 percent of caucusgoers would prefer a candidate who can beat Trump to one they agree with on major issues. Among these “electability voters,” Biden and Buttigieg are leading, while Sanders is doing best among “issues voters.”


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