FiveThirtyEight
Joshua Darr

In Winterset (Madison County), where only Klobuchar has an official campaign office, it’s looking like she may fall short of viability in the 2nd precinct. (Lots of signs on the wall, though.)

Dan Hopkins

Here at the Philadelphia satellite caucus, Sanders and Warren are viable after the first round. We’ll see how the Yang, Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar supporters now realign.

Geoffrey Skelley

Nathaniel, it’s interesting that they might get 300,000 participants tonight — that would work out to about 13 percent of the state’s voting-eligible population. This would definitely be a record for one party’s caucuses in Iowa, but that would still be lower turnout as a share of the voting-eligible than the average turnout level for primary states in the 2016 Democratic nomination race (15 percent), per calculations based on data from U.S. Elections Project.


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