What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

On the topic of turnout, an important question going into tonight was which polling method had a more accurate turnout model: polls that projected turnout based on who said they would caucus vs. polls that modeled turnout based on past elections. Sanders has generally done better in the former, while Biden as done better in the latter.

Here’s an agenda for tonight’s caucus — there’s quite a bit of housekeeping, in addition to the much-anticipated vote. The precinct chair definitely has a captive audience this evening.

I see a lot of reporters shocked when [insert candidate here] doesn’t achieve viability in their precinct but … folks, that’s gonna happen a lot. With a bunch of candidates polling in the high teens or low 20s, there are going to be plenty of places where they have trouble hitting 15 percent, at least on first alignment.