What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses

You know how people will get really into a band but then sour on it when it becomes super popular? That desire to be different shows up in elections too.

According to a December Civiqs survey of Iowa Democrats, the more you prefer to go against the grain, the less likely you are to support Biden’s candidacy. Civiqs asked, “When something becomes popular with other people, do you tend to become less interested in it?” Of those who said they want to be different, just 13 percent support Biden; compare this to 32 percent who support Sanders, 31 percent who support Buttigieg and 24 percent who support Warren.

The 2020 Democratic primary has featured extensive debate about policy issues like Medicare for All and immigration, but individuals’ preferences aren’t all that predictable based on policy attitudes and beliefs, especially as political and social identities become blurred. Taste and personality play a big role.

In a low-turnout caucus, the strength of each candidate’s field organization in the state — how well they turn out their supporters and convince undecided voters to join their cause — can have a meaningful effect. Last month, ABC News reporter/producer Samantha Sergi and I took a close look at the field operations of the top four candidates in Iowa, and — as Yutong mentioned earlier — we found that they’re pretty similar in scope and strategy. For instance, Buttigieg had 33 field offices across the state, Biden had 28, Warren had 27 and Sanders had 21 as of Jan. 23.

Still, if there’s a surprise in tonight’s results, it could be because one candidate turned out to have a particularly strong field staff. While some benefits of a strong field operation are already reflected in polls (e.g., knocking a lot of doors could lead to more people telling pollsters that a candidate is their top choice), others are unknowable until after the initial preference vote.Well-trained precinct captains at each caucus location are a key ingredient to keeping a candidate’s supporters loyal, picking up new ones during the realignment phase and challenging any rulings by the temporary caucus chair against a candidate.

And the caucus is being called to order! Here we go, y’all. Don’t forget to tweet questions at me if you have them — I am here to answer them, big or small!