Now that common sense, conventional wisdom and the betting markets have converged on the near-certainty of a Clinton vs. Trump general-election matchup, what can polls tell us at this point about who would win? It’s far too soon to believe exactly what the polls say at this stage — only after the conventions do they get really predictive. Still, if you’re wondering, lots of pollsters have been asking voters this question for a while, and Clinton consistently wins in the hypothetical matchup.
HuffPost Pollster has Clinton beating Trump by about 7 percentage points on average. And her lead has been remarkably steady: She has led in all but two of the last 58 polls the site has compiled. In the two exceptions, Trump is level with Clinton in one, and ahead by 2 points in another. Perhaps because the two are such longstanding national figures with major name recognition, an average of just 10 percent of respondents have said they are undecided. Again: Take these polls with a generous pinch of salt.
