In the House, where Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, Republicans are more insulated by gerrymandering and the fact that filing deadlines are now closed in over 80 percent of districts. On a micro level, it’s extremely difficult to count 30 GOP seats that Democrats have a chance to win. But on a macro level, if Clinton does end up beating Trump by more than 8 points nationally, there could be some surprises, particularly in highly educated and heavily minority districts. So maybe Trump changes my range from Dems picking up five to 15 seats to perhaps 10 to 20, but that’s still a long way from 30.
