FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

Trump’s nomination will put the Senate super in play. Democrats only need four seats, if Clinton wins the presidency. Democrats are already winning in Illinois and Wisconsin. They may be up in Ohio, if you believe some of the polls. The races in Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call. And now we’re hearing murmurs that Iowa, Missouri and North Carolina could be in play. As for the House, I’m less sure. Yes, Trump could erode the Republican hold on it, and I know our own Dave Wasserman and The Cook Political Report has been moving races more toward the Democratic column. Still, that’s far harder to project given that Democrats need to pick up 30 seats for a majority.

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