We’re not much for intuition around here, but for what it’s worth: it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump’s general-election deficit with Clinton — currently about 7 percentage points — narrows over the next month or so as there’s a sort of euphoric amazement about Trump winning the nomination, producing very favorable media coverage for Trump.
But we should wait until the general-election campaign begins in earnest before concluding very much about what the equilibrium of the race might be. Some Republicans who were initially reluctant to support Trump will turn around and back him now, but the Democrats will have a lot of money and a big opposition research file, and Clinton will be able to sustain focus on Trump’s negatives in a way that his Republican rivals weren’t able to do.
