What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

At The New York Times, the Upshot’s model still has Clinton narrowly favored in Indiana because of outstanding votes in Indianapolis and Lake County. But let’s suppose Sanders pulls it out and wins a narrow victory instead, claiming 42 of Indiana’s 83 pledged delegates. He’d still then need 611 of the remaining 933 pledged delegates to catch Clinton, or about two-thirds. Here’s a scenario for what that would look like: Sanders would need to win California by 31 percentage points, for instance, and New Jersey by double digits despite having lost every neighboring state.

What Sanders’s path would look like after a narrow win in Indiana

DATE	STATE	PLEDGED DELEGATES AVAILABLE	SANDERS TARGET	POPULAR VOTE MARGIN REQUIRED TO HIT DELEGATE TARGET
May 7	Guam	7	5	Sanders +43
May 10	West Virginia	29	22	Sanders +52
May 17	Kentucky	55	37	Sanders +35
	Oregon	61	48	Sanders +57
June 4	Virgin Islands	7	5	Sanders +43
June 5	Puerto Rico	60	35	Sanders +17
June 7	California	475	312	Sanders +31
	Montana	21	17	Sanders +62
	New Jersey	126	71	Sanders +13
	New Mexico	34	20	Sanders +18
	South Dakota	20	14	Sanders +40
	North Dakota	18	15	Sanders +67
June 14	District of Columbia	20	10	Tie