What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

The exit polls on the Democratic side look familiar: Sanders dominated among young and independent voters, Clinton among old voters and black voters. Consistent with Sanders’s gains as votes were counted, he also won among late deciders, getting 55 percent of the vote from people who decided in the last few days. That could mean his campaign’s claim that voters in upcoming primaries will turn toward him as they get to know him more has some merit. It could also reflect the decision by the Clinton campaign to spend virtually nothing on advertising in Indiana, since it has such a formidable lead among delegates.

Now that common sense, conventional wisdom and the betting markets have converged on the near-certainty of a Clinton vs. Trump general-election matchup, what can polls tell us at this point about who would win? It’s far too soon to believe exactly what the polls say at this stage — only after the conventions do they get really predictive. Still, if you’re wondering, lots of pollsters have been asking voters this question for a while, and Clinton consistently wins in the hypothetical matchup. HuffPost Pollster has Clinton beating Trump by about 7 percentage points on average. And her lead has been remarkably steady: She has led in all but two of the last 58 polls the site has compiled. In the two exceptions, Trump is level with Clinton in one, and ahead by 2 points in another. Perhaps because the two are such longstanding national figures with major name recognition, an average of just 10 percent of respondents have said they are undecided. Again: Take these polls with a generous pinch of salt.

And P.S. to that House post: Our ratings at the Cook Political Report show that Democrats would need to win 34 of 36 competitive seats to win the House. That’s an extremely tall order.