What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

In the House, where Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, Republicans are more insulated by gerrymandering and the fact that filing deadlines are now closed in over 80 percent of districts. On a micro level, it’s extremely difficult to count 30 GOP seats that Democrats have a chance to win. But on a macro level, if Clinton does end up beating Trump by more than 8 points nationally, there could be some surprises, particularly in highly educated and heavily minority districts. So maybe Trump changes my range from Dems picking up five to 15 seats to perhaps 10 to 20, but that’s still a long way from 30.

Trump’s nomination will put the Senate super in play. Democrats only need four seats, if Clinton wins the presidency. Democrats are already winning in Illinois and Wisconsin. They may be up in Ohio, if you believe some of the polls. The races in Florida and New Hampshire are too close to call. And now we’re hearing murmurs that Iowa, Missouri and North Carolina could be in play. As for the House, I’m less sure. Yes, Trump could erode the Republican hold on it, and I know our own Dave Wasserman and The Cook Political Report has been moving races more toward the Democratic column. Still, that’s far harder to project given that Democrats need to pick up 30 seats for a majority.

I don’t know, but in some ways, the lack of a contested convention makes it easier for them. There’s nothing compelling them to endorse Trump or endorse #NeverTrump — they can just stay silent on him and see how things develop. To some extent, it could be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If Trump’s polls against Clinton still look bad a couple of months from now, a lot of people will want off the train. If he’s in a competitive race, I think the blue-state Republicans will still keep their distance, but many of the purple-state ones will come along.