What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

NBC News projects Sanders has won in Indiana.

We pointed out a few weeks ago that most GOP governors, senators and representatives had not endorsed any of the remaining candidates. Using our weighting system — 10 points for endorsements from governors, five points for endorsements from U.S. senators and one point for endorsements from U.S. representatives — we saw that only 22 percent of available points had been awarded to a candidate still in the race, the lowest share since at least 1980. With Cruz dropping out, that percentage drops to 18. The question now will be whether more Republican elites will rally around Trump or continue to sit this cycle out and not endorse anyone.

In the end, Cruz ran a pretty good campaign — in a field of 17 candidates, the second-place candidate probably deserves some credit. But he was also, in his own way, just as much a factional candidate as Trump, instead of someone who was able to unite or interested in uniting the Republican Party. It’s easy to look back now and say that Trump had a lock on the race all along, but we know that nomination races are fairly path-dependent — small things can make a big difference. So, yes, I’m an unforgivable Marco Rubio fanboy who wonders what would have been if Rubio had a better debate in New Hampshire, knocked Kasich out, won a few more states on Super Tuesday and emerged as Trump’s main opposition instead of Cruz. To some extent, Rubio would have combined Cruz’s and Kasich’s strengths, while also having more support from party elites, potentially making him more of a consensus choice as the rest of the field consolidated.