What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

We often talk about the “base” of the Republican primary. I don’t know what the base exactly is, but I’ve often heard it described as the ideological base (i.e., very conservative voters). Well, that base is not in love with Trump. Even as he wins easily in Indiana, he’s losing self-described very conservative Republican primary voters 54 percent to 41 percent. Moreover, Trump is losing those who attend church at least once a week 63 percent to 28 percent. It’ll be interesting to see how these very conservative and very religious voters react to Trump’s nomination. Cruz himself gave them little direction in his speech this evening.

We’ve watched a lot of Republican candidates go down this year. But Ted Cruz’s speech feels the most like a wrap-up of the Reagan era. He’s talking about – and to – the conservative movement. His speech referenced Reagan and the Cold War. And then it pivoted to a discussion of terrorism and ISIS and health care and “race wars.” In other words, it’s not 1988 anymore, a year when the Republican Party nominated a sitting vice president for the first time in almost 30 years, and won a third term in the White House for the first time since Herbert Hoover’s election in 1928. The issues are new ones, and the terms of debate have changed. I doubt that’s what Cruz had in mind, but that’s how it sounded to me.

It’s been fairly obvious for over a month that Clinton would be the Democratic nominee, while the GOP race has been much more dramatic and complex. But what’s remarkable — and distressing for Democrats — is that while Trump has made amazing gains in the GOP race that have culminated in Cruz leaving the race tonight, the Democratic race has remained fairly static, with Sanders continuing to win lower-income, less diverse states like Indiana. The psychology of Democratic voters continues to look detached from the reality of delegate math. Trump and Clinton are both pretty much presumptive nominees at this point, but Trump is winning Indiana with about 51 percent of the vote tonight while Clinton is taking only 47 percent and could end up even lower. As Trump consolidates Republican support, it’s more apparent than ever that Clinton needs a strong Sanders endorsement to unite the Democratic base. Sanders will be under heavy pressure to provide just that when Clinton, in all likelihood, officially clinches a majority of delegates on June 7.