What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

OK, so in a normal year, we might imagine that the Democratic and Republican nominees would be working to turn out their respective bases in the few competitive states that still exist on the U.S. electoral map. But this is not shaping up to be a normal year. Trump is an unconventional nominee for at least three reasons: he has no formal political experience; he’s made a variety of statements that you don’t normally make in American politics (about women, about Muslim immigrants, about Mexican immigrants); and he’s been heartily disavowed by many party leaders, including the party’s last nominee. So the question with Trump is less about ideology – in fact, many of the criticisms of him from established party members are that he’s not a true conservative – and more about whether he can or will transform himself into a more mainstream candidate. Or whether he will want to. I can’t predict whether that will happen, but the more interesting question in my mind is the implications of that choice. In some ways, it’ll be more remarkable if, after all of this, Trump tones down his rhetoric, reads up on policy, and invites party leaders over for steaks and vodka. But what if the more readily imaginable scenario is the one we see – that Trump continues his campaign in a similar vein, creating an opportunity for a Democratic presidential landslide? This will likely be a big moment for Republican rebuilding and introspection, and since there were so many candidates and perspectives this year, it will be hard to know who to blame.

Cruz is about to drop out of the Republican race, according to an array of well-sourced reporters on Twitter. Mathematically, that makes sense. After Trump’s huge win in Indiana tonight, Cruz’s delegate math was extremely daunting. National polls have also turned further against him, and most Republicans don’t want a contested convention, which was Cruz’s only chance at winning. I’m going to hold off on further comment until I hear more of Cruz’s speech, and watch whether he hints about an endorsement of Trump, or stays neutral or negative toward Trump in an effort to position himself toward 2020.

Following up on Nate, this wouldn’t be a shocking polling error in Indiana. Right now, Sanders is holding a 4 percentage point lead in Indiana. Yes, none of the pre-election polls had Sanders winning. And yes, the average of polls taken over the past three weeks had Clinton up by a little over 7 percentage points in Indiana. But before the Wisconsin primary, I calculated that a poll before a caucus or primary had an average error of 11 percentage points. In other words, right in line with the error there appears to be in Indiana right now.