What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

Cruz is about to drop out of the Republican race, according to an array of well-sourced reporters on Twitter. Mathematically, that makes sense. After Trump’s huge win in Indiana tonight, Cruz’s delegate math was extremely daunting. National polls have also turned further against him, and most Republicans don’t want a contested convention, which was Cruz’s only chance at winning. I’m going to hold off on further comment until I hear more of Cruz’s speech, and watch whether he hints about an endorsement of Trump, or stays neutral or negative toward Trump in an effort to position himself toward 2020.

Following up on Nate, this wouldn’t be a shocking polling error in Indiana. Right now, Sanders is holding a 4 percentage point lead in Indiana. Yes, none of the pre-election polls had Sanders winning. And yes, the average of polls taken over the past three weeks had Clinton up by a little over 7 percentage points in Indiana. But before the Wisconsin primary, I calculated that a poll before a caucus or primary had an average error of 11 percentage points. In other words, right in line with the error there appears to be in Indiana right now.