What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

Following up on Nate, this wouldn’t be a shocking polling error in Indiana. Right now, Sanders is holding a 4 percentage point lead in Indiana. Yes, none of the pre-election polls had Sanders winning. And yes, the average of polls taken over the past three weeks had Clinton up by a little over 7 percentage points in Indiana. But before the Wisconsin primary, I calculated that a poll before a caucus or primary had an average error of 11 percentage points. In other words, right in line with the error there appears to be in Indiana right now.

For some perspective on Indiana, our final polling average had Clinton up by around 7 percentage points. By comparison, her lead in Michigan was in excess of 20 points — about three times as high. That was a historic upset for Sanders; this would be a pretty normal primary miss. If Sanders wins Indiana, it would be the second state so far — after Michigan — where the FiveThirtyEight polling average has miscalled the winner.