What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

For some perspective on Indiana, our final polling average had Clinton up by around 7 percentage points. By comparison, her lead in Michigan was in excess of 20 points — about three times as high. That was a historic upset for Sanders; this would be a pretty normal primary miss. If Sanders wins Indiana, it would be the second state so far — after Michigan — where the FiveThirtyEight polling average has miscalled the winner.

So it looks like the polls are going to be wrong on the Democratic side in Indiana? Where will this stack up in terms of polling misses this year?

Just a moment of reflection for those millennial readers who have never owned a TV and are following these Indiana results the good old fashioned Twitter/refresh way; the scene on cable television right now is quite a thing. Steve Schmidt, of “Game Change”/John McCain ’08 fame, really captured the gloomy mood when he said, “Republicans need to ask whether they love their country more than their party.” We’ve all be gradually realizing the mathematical odds stacking up for Trump, but the chatter amongst the TV people is currently what sort of convention Trump will throw in July, and that is truly a moment; the party planning says it all.