What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

We’re not much for intuition around here, but for what it’s worth: it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump’s general-election deficit with Clinton — currently about 7 percentage points — narrows over the next month or so as there’s a sort of euphoric amazement about Trump winning the nomination, producing very favorable media coverage for Trump. But we should wait until the general-election campaign begins in earnest before concluding very much about what the equilibrium of the race might be. Some Republicans who were initially reluctant to support Trump will turn around and back him now, but the Democrats will have a lot of money and a big opposition research file, and Clinton will be able to sustain focus on Trump’s negatives in a way that his Republican rivals weren’t able to do.

As more Election Day votes come in, Sanders has begun to look better and better in Indiana. I’ll admit, I didn’t anticipate his strength earlier in the night because we haven’t tended to see this big a divide between early votes and Election Day votes on the Democratic side before. At this point, Sanders is ahead in Marion County and has a real chance to win this primary.

It’s really amazing to see how Sanders does better and better in a county as more votes cast on the day of the election are counted. You can see that in Allen County (Fort Wayne), where Sanders may take a lead when the next batch of votes is counted. Why does Clinton do better in early votes? Usually, those are cast by older and more habitual voters — Clinton’s base.