Updated |
What Went Down In The Indiana Primary
Right on cue, initial returns from Lake County (Gary) show Clinton leading there with 65 percent. A few minutes ago, Sanders had taken the lead, thanks to strong showings in two college towns: Bloomington (Monroe County) and South Bend (St. Joseph County). But Clinton can probably count on many more favorable votes yet to be counted in minority-heavy precincts of Gary and Indianapolis. Sanders’s best outstanding area is probably Lafayette (Tippecanoe County).
At The New York Times, the Upshot’s model still has Clinton narrowly favored in Indiana because of outstanding votes in Indianapolis and Lake County. But let’s suppose Sanders pulls it out and wins a narrow victory instead, claiming 42 of Indiana’s 83 pledged delegates. He’d still then need 611 of the remaining 933 pledged delegates to catch Clinton, or about two-thirds. Here’s a scenario for what that would look like: Sanders would need to win California by 31 percentage points, for instance, and New Jersey by double digits despite having lost every neighboring state.
| DATE | STATE | PLEDGED DELEGATES AVAILABLE | SANDERS TARGET | POPULAR VOTE MARGIN REQUIRED TO HIT DELEGATE TARGET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7 | Guam | 7 | 5 | Sanders +43 |
| May 10 | West Virginia | 29 | 22 | Sanders +52 |
| May 17 | Kentucky | 55 | 37 | Sanders +35 |
| Oregon | 61 | 48 | Sanders +57 | |
| June 4 | Virgin Islands | 7 | 5 | Sanders +43 |
| June 5 | Puerto Rico | 60 | 35 | Sanders +17 |
| June 7 | California | 475 | 312 | Sanders +31 |
| Montana | 21 | 17 | Sanders +62 | |
| New Jersey | 126 | 71 | Sanders +13 | |
| New Mexico | 34 | 20 | Sanders +18 | |
| South Dakota | 20 | 14 | Sanders +40 | |
| North Dakota | 18 | 15 | Sanders +67 | |
| June 14 | District of Columbia | 20 | 10 | Tie |
In the last half hour, Sanders has begun to show more strength. He’s ahead in South Bend, and he’s holding his own in Indianapolis and its suburbs. However, Clinton should eventually be able to count on a better margin in Indianapolis and traditionally late-reporting Gary, which have the highest proportions of African-American voters in the state. Clinton still looks like the favorite to win, but suddenly it’s not looking like as much of a blowout.