Updated |
What Went Down In The Indiana Primary
At The New York Times, the Upshot’s model still has Clinton narrowly favored in Indiana because of outstanding votes in Indianapolis and Lake County. But let’s suppose Sanders pulls it out and wins a narrow victory instead, claiming 42 of Indiana’s 83 pledged delegates. He’d still then need 611 of the remaining 933 pledged delegates to catch Clinton, or about two-thirds. Here’s a scenario for what that would look like: Sanders would need to win California by 31 percentage points, for instance, and New Jersey by double digits despite having lost every neighboring state.
| DATE | STATE | PLEDGED DELEGATES AVAILABLE | SANDERS TARGET | POPULAR VOTE MARGIN REQUIRED TO HIT DELEGATE TARGET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7 | Guam | 7 | 5 | Sanders +43 |
| May 10 | West Virginia | 29 | 22 | Sanders +52 |
| May 17 | Kentucky | 55 | 37 | Sanders +35 |
| Oregon | 61 | 48 | Sanders +57 | |
| June 4 | Virgin Islands | 7 | 5 | Sanders +43 |
| June 5 | Puerto Rico | 60 | 35 | Sanders +17 |
| June 7 | California | 475 | 312 | Sanders +31 |
| Montana | 21 | 17 | Sanders +62 | |
| New Jersey | 126 | 71 | Sanders +13 | |
| New Mexico | 34 | 20 | Sanders +18 | |
| South Dakota | 20 | 14 | Sanders +40 | |
| North Dakota | 18 | 15 | Sanders +67 | |
| June 14 | District of Columbia | 20 | 10 | Tie |
In the last half hour, Sanders has begun to show more strength. He’s ahead in South Bend, and he’s holding his own in Indianapolis and its suburbs. However, Clinton should eventually be able to count on a better margin in Indianapolis and traditionally late-reporting Gary, which have the highest proportions of African-American voters in the state. Clinton still looks like the favorite to win, but suddenly it’s not looking like as much of a blowout.
We probably won’t record one of our patented (okay, fine, patent pending) late-night podcasts to discuss Indiana tonight. But we do have a live show in Washington, D.C., tomorrow where we’ll be able to analyze the results. All along, we thought that if Cruz won Indiana, we’d have delegate math to break down, and if Trump won we’d take a step back, treat him like the presumptive nominee, and start to grapple with…. what that means.
So, I’m curious: What big-think Donald Trump questions do you have tonight? For us, for yourself, for our country? What’s your working theory about Trump’s rise? What does it say about the state of our politics? This is a moment, people. Help us get our heads around it.
Tweet me, email us, or post in the comments to the right (yes, we read those).