What Went Down In The Indiana Primary

The exit polls say Clinton will win Marion County (home to Indianapolis) by only 2 percentage points. I’m not sure I believe that will be the outcome. Obama won it over Clinton by 34.5 percentage points in 2008, and black residents make up 28 percent of the total population.

As our delegate calculator suggests, the combination of a big win in Indiana and uncommitted delegates from Pennsylvania and other states should be enough to put Trump ahead of the 1,237-delegate mark, even if he encounters a few bumps in the road later on — only splitting California delegates, for instance, or missing out on a few delegates from West Virginia because of its strange rules. It’s less clear whether Trump will get to 1,237 without uncommitted delegates, but that’s mostly an academic question because of Pennsylvania. The only real hope for Cruz and other candidates would be a big loss for Trump in California, at which point Trump would still be in quite a bit of trouble. Trump, though, has a large lead in California polls.