When Harry Enten and I spoke to Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe today, Roe suggested that if Trump lost to Clinton, it would come to be seen as a black swan event and that the Republican Party might return to relatively familiar ground in 2020. Whereas a Trump win in November would be more transformational.
One can agree or disagree with Roe’s analytical point. In our view here at FiveThirtyEight, there’s a substantial chance that the Republican Party is forever changed, whether or not Trump wins. But given that Cruz represents the Reagan-esque, movement conservative wing of the GOP, you wonder if Cruz wouldn’t prefer for the party to return to where it was before Trump descended that escalator last June.
