FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

To my point earlier about Trump playing to his strengths at the cost of limiting his strategic flexibility: That’s arguably slightly more problematic for Trump given that the Democrats will get to respond to Trump at their convention next week. Unconventional strategies are less effective if you know they’re coming in advance. Still, I don’t really have any strong instinct for how this will all play out — going to have to let it soak in a bit.

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