FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

The crowd is eating up building a wall, but, as I pointed out, most Americans don’t want a wall along the Mexican border. The fact that this is such a big applause line and Trump loves it sends the message to me that this is a speech for the base and not so much for the middle of the electorate.

Nate Silver

To my point earlier about Trump playing to his strengths at the cost of limiting his strategic flexibility: That’s arguably slightly more problematic for Trump given that the Democrats will get to respond to Trump at their convention next week. Unconventional strategies are less effective if you know they’re coming in advance. Still, I don’t really have any strong instinct for how this will all play out — going to have to let it soak in a bit.

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