Will Democratic Voters In Arkansas Try To Influence Republican Primaries?
One thing I’m watching tonight is whether and how Democratic voters turn out in Arkansas. Arkansas Democrat-Gazette columnist John Brummet wrote a column last week, in the middle of early voting, urging Democrats in heavily Republican areas to vote for less extreme, more moderate Republicans in the primary to have a bigger impact and affect the direction the state takes next term. “For less-nutty Republicans to win those races with Democratic and independent help would make the state Legislature, while still conservative in reflection of a conservative state, more responsibly so and less destructively so,” he wrote.
This is also the general message from a group called Common Ground Arkansas, a nonprofit founded by state Sen. Jim Hendren, a former Republican who is now an independent. The group has a calculator on its website telling voters how much power their vote has in each primary, and Republican primary voters simply have a bigger impact in many counties because they have more competitive primaries, and in many local races the winners won’t face a Democratic challenger in the fall at all.
Brummet reported that early voting numbers, which have been up compared to 2018, have shown some voters crossing over in the Little Rock area, which is almost certain to be a win for Democrats in the fall and where his strategy would be unnecessary. But if voters across the state take his advice, it could underestimate support a bit for Democrats as a whole.
Latest count in Georgia’s GOP primary for governor
Results of Georgia’s Republican primary for governor, as of 8:33 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Kemp* | 210,805 | 73.0% |
| David Perdue | 64,642 | 22.4 |
| Kandiss Taylor | 10,330 | 3.6 |
| Catherine Davis | 2,339 | 0.8 |
| Tom Williams | 755 | 0.3 |
The New York Times seems to have the most results in for Texas’s 30th District — 67 percent of the expected final vote. And state Rep. Jasmine Crockett leads Jane Hamilton 60 percent to 40 percent. As I mentioned earlier, Crockett narrowly missed the “50 percent and one vote” threshold needed to avoid a runoff outright in March. But she’s largely considered the favorite tonight and has the backing of retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson.
As Alex just mentioned, the Democrats’ runoff in Texas’s 30th District between Crockett and Hamilton is one we are watching closely. Crockett and Hamilton are both Black women vying to replace Johnson, who is also a Black woman, in this predominantly Black district. Crockett has support from notable progressives, like Our Revolution and Sen. Bernie Sanders, so if she wins tonight, that would be a victory for the progressive wing of the party.
I definitely think Raffensperger will fall under 50 percent, Sarah. I’m not sure Hice will be able to win outright, though, which means we could be back here covering this race all over again on June 21.
Sarah, I see a few reasons for the discrepancy between Cawthorn and Greene (or Boebert, for that matter). Greene’s controversies tend to resonate more among activist Democrats — i.e., voters that GOP leadership couldn’t care less about. But Cawthorn’s scandals were salacious enough they cut through the news in a way that Greene’s usually don’t. Then you’ve got the personal beef between Cawthorn and Tillis, which I think was a big factor. And finally, Cawthorn’s district-shopping angered Republicans in a way that set a lot of those events into motion, and Greene doesn’t have that problem.
Oh, Jacob, no doubt there’s a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to beating Greene. Her likely Democratic opponent, Army veteran Marcus Flowers has raised an astonishing $8.2 million, nearly as much as Greene’s $9.3 million this cycle. This, in a district that is 45 points more Republican than the country as a whole — i.e., a seat where an iceberg in hell has a better chance than a Democrat in November. Flowers’s impressive fundraising reflects how long-shot candidates can raise a bunch of money if they’re running against candidates who are especially disliked by members of the long-shot’s party and/or if they can come up with a viral video that catches fire on social media.
Really not letting go of the idea that Hice wins, Nathaniel. 😉 I don’t have a crystal ball, but this does look like a close race and maybe one that breaks in Raffensperger’s favor in the end.
This map of the Georgia secretary of state primary from The New York Times really shows how Hice (in yellow) is winning only the counties around his congressional district — for now.
It is interesting, Jacob, the extent to which Greene’s challenger fizzled, whereas Rep. Madison Cawthorn found himself in a close contest that he ultimately lost last week in North Carolina. Seems as if the GOP establishment didn’t target Greene as hard, despite the controversy she attracts.
In the Arkansas Senate Republican primary, challengers are going after the incumbent John Boozman because he voted to certify the 2020 election results, instead of supporting Trump’s Big Lie. Trump endorsed Boozman in his reelection bid, anyway. Boozman needs a majority of the vote to win outright tonight, so the challengers are trying to force a runoff. According to a Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College poll of 802 likely Republican primary voters, Boozman was at 45 percent of the vote, Jake Bequette had 19 percent and Jan Morgan had 16.5 percent. Heath Loftis had 1.5 percent of the potential vote, and 18 percent were undecided. Polls are closing soon.
A few wishful thinkers on both sides of the aisle tricked themselves into believing that Marjorie Taylor Greene, the controversial Republican from Georgia’s 14th District, might get taken down tonight. But with about a third of the vote in, Greene leads her top challenger, Jennifer Strahan, by a massive 71-to-14 percent margin.
Latest count in Georgia’s 14th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, as of 8:23 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Marjorie Taylor Greene* | 17,723 | 71.4% |
| Jennifer Strahan | 3,456 | 13.9 |
| Eric Cunningham | 1,763 | 7.1 |
| James Haygood | 987 | 4.0 |
| Charles Lutin | 472 | 1.9 |
| Seth Synstelien | 416 | 1.7 |
Yeah, Geoffrey, to extend my earlier analysis, Carr is running basically even with Kemp: He has 75 percent, Kemp has 73 percent. If the gubernatorial polls were anywhere close to accurate, Carr is well on his way to a victory.
The Georgia GOP primary for attorney general is turning into a pretty one-sided affair, as the incumbent Carr leads his challenger Gordon 75 percent to 25 percent, with 20 percent of the estimated vote reporting. As we get more Election Day votes, that margin will probably narrow, but right now it’s hard to see Carr losing renomination.
Here’s what to watch for in Texas’s 30th District: The solidly blue seat will likely remain in Democrat’s hands this fall, but the question still remains of who will win control of the seat being vacated by Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. Tonight, the two Democrats duking it out to represent the Dallas-area seat are state Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Jane Hamilton, a longtime congressional staffer and campaign adviser. The race between the two women went to a runoff after Crockett barely missed the majority-vote threshold needed to win outright in March. Crockett is largely considered the favorite going into tonight, but she’s faced attacks on her record by Hamilton, and it could hurt her with voters in the district. Additionally, this seat might be a test of endorsements, too. While Crockett has the backing of Johnson herself, Hamilton has the support of other notable Black politicians in the area, like state Sen. Royce West and Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price.
Still mostly early votes in Georgia, so it’s notable that the Trump-endorsed Jones is running narrowly in second right now in the 10th District Republican primary in the race to succeed Hice, who is running for secretary of state. Jones has 17 percent, putting him just ahead of former Georgia Revenue Commissioner David Curry at 16 percent, but behind businessman Mike Collins at 33 percent. But we know from previous primaries that Trumpier primary voters tend to cast more Election Day ballots, so Jones could be in a position to at least make a runoff against Collins.
Latest count in Georgia’s 10th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for Georgia’s 10th Congressional District, as of 8:20 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Collins | 6,327 | 30.3% |
| Vernon Jones | 3,988 | 19.1 |
| Paul Broun | 2,826 | 13.5 |
| David Curry | 2,739 | 13.1 |
| Timothy Barr | 2,703 | 12.9 |
| Mitchell Swan | 985 | 4.7 |
| Alan Sims | 951 | 4.6 |
| Marc McMain | 382 | 1.8 |
Yeah, I think that the liberal-to-conservative spectrum that served us well during most of the post-war era isn’t particularly useful for describing the difference between Bush and Trump. One is a populist/isolationist, and the other is an institutionalist/globalist. There are many ways in which Bush is more classically conservative in terms of free trade or military hawkishness or even being a born-again Christian. But that is not quite how politics is judged today.
Also, there’s Huckabee Sanders, who will most likely follow in her father’s footsteps and be elected governor of Arkansas this year. Maybe it’s just the Bush dynasty that’s not winning.
Yeah, that’s a really good point, Geoffrey. And as FiveThirtyEight contributors Dan Hopkins and Hans Noel argued in 2021, what it means to be “conservative” within the GOP isn’t terribly clear cut either.
I’m just thinking of Perdue, as well. Not Bush-level dynasty, but plenty of political blood in that family. (His father was also a senator. His cousin is former Georgia governor and former Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue.)
Alex, I think in the GOP on the whole the Bush name is perhaps worse than worn out. I think it evokes a (pick your term here) globalist, moderate, elite, corporate, etc. vision of the party that Trump went a long way towards diminishing. Bush Sr. went so far as to say eh voted for Clinton in 2016 and Bush Jr. voted for neither Trump or Clinton.
Jinx, Geoffrey.
It’s possible the Bush name isn’t necessarily “moderate,” unless by that we mean it’s just extremely establishment. In today’s GOP, that’s possibly a fair way to judge things. George W. Bush famously said “that was some weird shit” following Trump’s 2017 inauguration speech, and has spent a lot of time on the fundraising circuit for incumbent Republicans like Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney.
Does the concept of “moderate” and the concept of “establishment” necessarily have to be the same?
I don’t know, Kaleigh. I think we’re in the midst of watching a new one being built, cough Trump cough.
But George P. was willing to buck his family in order to make Trump happy, no? So the argument as it related to tonight’s attorney general’s race is whether George P. can step out of his family’s shadow a bit? (I don’t think this is likely, FWIW.)
Do political dynasties overall hold less sway than they used to?
Cisneros is already outstripping her March margins in one key county in Texas’s 28th District.
It’s still pretty early in the night, but results so far give incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton a lead over Land Commissioner George P. Bush. With just about 10 percent of precincts reporting, Paxton leads Bush 65 percent to 35 percent.
Yeah, and to the points you raise about the Bush family name, Alex and Galen. I have to ask … since when has the Bush name become synonymous with the moderate wing of the GOP? This strikes me as a Trump-related phenomenon more than any real shift in the Bush dynasty, but I’m curious for others thoughts, as the argument has been made convincingly before that not that much separated the Clintons and Bush, policy-wise.
While only 14 percent of the vote is in, Burt Jones (Trump’s preferred candidate) leads Butch Miller, 53 percent to 29 percent. Georgia’s lieutenant governor actually chose not to run for reelection, citing the fallout from the 2020 election, making this an easier pickup for Trump than unseating Raffensperger, Carr or Kemp. But as Nathaniel said, it’s probable that Jones’ margin will decrease as tonight continues — it roughly halved in the time it took to write this comment.
I wonder if the ‘Bush’ name is just worn out at this point, Galen?
Polls are now closed in Alabama, home of the second-most-closely watched races of the night, including a three-way Republican primary for Senate! I’ll also be watching the Republican primary for the open 5th Congressional District, whether Gov. Kay Ivey gets forced into a runoff and who wins the GOP primary for the open secretary of state’s chair.
With polls now closed in most of Texas, I’m watching the Democratic primary in Texas’s 15th district, between Michelle Vallejo and Ruben Ramirez. Democrats are hoping to hold onto this seat, which became redder with redistricting. They face Trump-endorsed Republican Monica De La Cruz.
Yeah, Nathaniel, you can see how the secretary of state race could be headed for a runoff if Raffensperger leads now with a bit more than 50 percent based on almost entirely early votes.
Count me as also interested in that race, Alex! The presence of the Bush name in Texas politics dates back to the 1970s, when H.W. first won a West Houston congressional district as part of a trend of well-to-do suburbs going reliably Republican for decades. Fast-forward 50 years and that West Houston district is now represented by a Democrat and the Bush name appears to be doing nothing for H.W.’s grandson in this A.G. race. Whether Texas is shifting blue or not, its politics are still very dynamic!
Latest count in Georgia’s GOP primary for secretary of state
Results of Georgia’s Republican primary for secretary of state, as of 8:02 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Brad Raffensperger* | 81,231 | 51.6% |
| Jody Hice | 50,809 | 32.3 |
| David Belle Isle | 15,940 | 10.1 |
| T.J. Hudson | 9,330 | 5.9 |
Latest count in Georgia’s GOP primary for governor
Results of Georgia’s Republican primary for governor, as of 8:00 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Kemp* | 109,549 | 74.5% |
| David Perdue | 31,138 | 21.2 |
| Kandiss Taylor | 4,690 | 3.2 |
| Catherine Davis | 1,281 | 0.9 |
| Tom Williams | 408 | 0.3 |
I’ll be interested in that race, too, Alex, because Paxton has also been a major player in the Big Lie space. He even led a lawsuit to defend Trump’s claims.
I’m watching the Democratic primary for the special election in MN-01 tonight. This is such a weirdo race. Tons of people are running in a primary tonight for a shot at a special election that will happen right before the actual primary for the same seat. The assumption is that whoever wins the special election nomination will also end up as their respective party’s regular election nominee. On the Democratic side, the person with the most endorsements right now is former Hormel CEO Jeff Ettinger, or as Nathaniel calls him, “the Spam guy.”
I’m watching Texas tonight, where Trump has endorsed embattled incumbent Ken Paxton, who will go head-to-head against Land Commissioner George P. Bush. While polling going into tonight suggests that the race is Paxton’s to lose, he’s been mired in personal and legal scandals for the last several years, and Bush has repeatedly knocked his integrity on the campaign trail. I don’t think this race is necessarily a referendum on Trump’s endorsement power, though. If anything, this race might say more about the Bush name. As the Texas Tribune wrote earlier, “Bush” has been increasingly tied to the more moderate wing of the GOP — which might not appeal as much to conservative, Texas primary voters. Plus, certain polls showed that likely primary voters were more hesitant to cast a ballot for Bush versus Paxton. So, all in all, Trump made a pretty safe bet here.
And as you wrote earlier on the live blog, Jacob, if Walker wins the general in November, he might be the first former NFL player to be a U.S. senator.
Earlier on the liveblog, we mentioned that Abrams has won the Democratic nomination for the governor’s race in Georgia. No surprise there, as she was running unopposed. Abrams has established herself as a rising star in the Democratic Party; she was chosen to give the party’s rebuttal to Trump’s State of the Union address in 2019. Georgia also happens to be one of nineteen states that has never had a female governor. Even as women’s representation has steadily increased over time in Congress and in state legislatures around the county, women’s representation as governors has remained low. As with other offices, people are quick to point to a problem of supply (women are less likely to run for political office), while others note the problem of demand (voters are still prejudiced against female political leaders, especially for executive offices like the governorship). Both of these things are true. But political opportunity and political culture vary by state, which can also help explain why women are still trying to chip away at the executive branch’s glass ceiling, and why that is more difficult depending on the state.
One under-the-radar race was the Democratic primary in Georgia’s 13th District. Progressives don’t love incumbent Democratic Rep. David Scott, and he narrowly avoided getting forced into a runoff in 2020. But so far tonight, with 14 percent of the expected vote reporting, he is taking 72 percent of the vote.
No surprise here but former UGA football legend Herschel Walker will win the GOP primary for Senate in Georgia, ABC News projects. Walker led the race wire to wire, despite a series of damaging stories that came out about him during the campaign. He’ll face incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock in the fall.
Thanks for plugging that, Kaleigh! Raffensperger has had an interesting past couple years. He’s faced some pretty horrific threats to his family, and he wrote a book about Trump basically asking him specifically to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia. At the same time, he’s really touted the election-law changes in Georgia since the election. He’s tried to straddle the divide to some extent — but not nearly to the extent of Kemp. I’m very eager to see what the ultimate result in his race is tonight.
I’m watching Arkansas tonight, where Trump made some safe bets with his endorsements: his former press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders for the Republican nomination for governor, and Sen. John Boozman, who was first elected when he defeated Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2010, when Arkansas was beginning to flip from blue to red. Boozman has challengers to his right, so it’s interesting to see Trump going for the establishment candidates in a state where he’s popular. Three of the four representatives to the House also have primary challengers tonight, although I don’t think any are expected to oust the incumbents.
It could also mean that Kemp wins by 40 points or something. Polls of primaries aren’t very good, and Perdue sort of gave up toward the end of the race.
Another election result that isn’t unexpected, but ABC News has projected that Sen. Raphael Warnock has won renomination. It’s something we were discussing on the podcast on Monday, but there’s good reason to believe both he and Abrams will make for competitive races in Georgia, despite a political environment that should favor Republicans.
Galen interviewed Raffensperger on the podcast last fall. It’s a fascinating discussion that’s really worth a listen. One of the things that stands out to me is how conservative Raffensperger is. This is not a moderate Republican. But because he stood up to Trump and got on Trump’s list of enemies, he’s fighting to gain support from the voters who should be his base.