My default expectation, Sarah, would be that Warnock will run slightly ahead of Abrams, as an incumbent and potentially by winning a handful of crossover votes in the Atlanta suburbs, as he did in the 2020 Senate race when he slightly outperformed his now-Senate colleague Jon Ossoff, who was running against then-Sen. David Perdue. But barring a seismic development, I have a hard time imagining a sizable difference between the vote shares in the Senate and gubernatorial races — maybe a point or two at most. Consider the last time Georgia had both races on the ballot in 2014: GOP Gov. Nathan Deal won 52.7 percent to Democrat Jason Carter’s 44.9 percent, while Perdue won 52.9 percent to Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 45.2 percent.
