I think the picture of Trump endorsements so far suggests that Trump can certainly move Republican voters to a degree. J.D. Vance and Mehmet Oz’s experiences speak to that. I think trying to put a number on it is interesting — maybe it’s 5 or 10 points? Maybe it’s more? It’s probably dependent on context. However, I think that, among some folks on the left, there is a caricature of Republican voters being minions who will just do whatever Trump tells them. That is very clearly not the case. Gov. Brian Kemp is almost certainly going to easily win renomination tonight after being vilified by Trump for a year and a half.
