If I had to venture guesses about how his night will go in the seven Georgia races where he endorsed non-incumbents, Trump will likely get a win in the U.S. Senate race, a loss in the governor’s race, a TBD in the race for secretary of state (runoff), a loss in the attorney’s general race, a win the lieutenant’s governor’s race and a couple runoffs in the primaries for the 6th and 10th districts.
But while tracking his endorsement success rate is key, especially in open-seat races, I do think we should be careful not to exaggerate how much that means about his chances in the 2024 presidential race, should he run. Even as president, Trump’s endorsees sometimes lost — just think back to the 2017 special election for Senate in Alabama, when he backed appointed Sen. Luther Strange. Trump’s endorsed candidates could very well lose at a decent clip tonight, and that still wouldn’t alter my view that he’s the front-runner in 2024 — if he wants to be.